Joseph Carlos Robinson

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Second Order Thinking

My parents were fierce advocates of formal education. They spared no expense to ensure that my brothers and I cultivated our minds. One of the biggest rooms in our home was the library. If I ever asked my Father what a particular word meant, he would always say “look it up.” My mother assiduously checked our homework, and even taught us advanced mathematical and literary shortcuts that frustrated our teachers. Even during the summers while we were supposed to be on vacation, homework was assigned. As much as I didn’t understand (and often disliked) their unrelenting focus on education, I will be forever grateful for the enormous sacrifices that they made to prepare us to face the challenges of life by cultivating our minds. As a result, I have read some great books and have attended some great schools.

But more importantly, I have come to value great people—especially those who have what my father called “good sense.” One of the unfortunate tendencies of some highly educated people is that begin to think that they can only learn from people who have formal education and advanced degrees. However, nothing could be further from the truth. You can learn from anybody. Some of the greatest lessons I have learned have come from people who may have never foot inside a classroom.

One of those lessons came from a man that I met at one of the churches I pastored. I don’t know if Mr. Campbell went to college or not. I know that he was from Arkansas. I know that he worked in the post office by day, and as a real estate broker by night. I know Mr. Campbell loved Cadillacs. And I know that he was one of the most meticulous, well manicured men that I have ever met. His wife told me that he even ironed his underwear. LOL. (I used to think that she was joking—but she never laughed when she said it). If you ever asked Mr. Campbell a question, he would NEVER give you a direct answer. Instead, he would tell a story or share a quote. At first, this habit of discourse was extremely frustrating. But then I learned that the purpose of his strategy was to shape my thinking by sharing principles not just providing solutions. I got an advanced degree in good sense from Mr. Campbell.

One of my favorite Mr. Campbell stories was about a fence. I called him early one morning to get his take on a very critical situation. I will never forget what he said. He said “never take the fence down until you know why it was put up.” In other words, he wanted me to assume that whoever had made the decision that I was trying to unmake had done so in order to solve a problem, and that I should understand the problem that they were trying to solve before I dismantled their solution. After thinking about his advice, I decided not to do what I was going to do. And it was a good thing I didn’t. If I had done what I was going to do, I would have had a disaster on my hands.

I didn’t know it at the time, but Mr. Campbell was teaching me what is called “Second Order Thinking.” Second order thinking is a mental model that is employed by great decision makers that encourages you to think about the consequences of what happens after you make a decision. Second order thinking keeps on asking the question “And then what?” Second order thinking not only considers the immediate problem, but considers the consequences of potential solutions to the problem.

For example, let’s say that your Boss is a racist and constantly offers opinions on controversial subjects that make you wonder if he or she is a closet member of the Klu Klux Klan. Their comments have become so offensive that one day you decide to quit. Well, good for you. That solves one problem. But that solution creates several others problems. You have solved the discomfort of taking orders from a racist. But…then what? How are you going to eat? Pay your rent or mortgage? Take care of your children? And so on. Second order thinking forces you to consider what might happen if you pursue a particular course of action.

Jesus once told a great story about a man who practiced this kind of thinking. The man was employed as a manager and had engaged in some dishonest business practices. The owner of the business that he worked for called him in and told him that in a few days he would no longer have a job. How the man responded to that news is a textbook illustration of second order thinking. According to Luke 16:3-9, this is what he did:

The manager said to himself, ‘What am I going to do? I’ve lost my job as manager. I’m not strong enough for a laboring job, and I’m too proud to beg. . . . Ah, I’ve got a plan. Here’s what I’ll do . . . then when I’m turned out into the street, people will take me into their houses.’“Then he went at it. One after another, he called in the people who were in debt to his master. He said to the first, ‘How much do you owe my master?’ He replied, ‘A hundred jugs of olive oil.’“The manager said, ‘Here, take your bill, sit down here—quick now—write fifty.’ 8-“Now here’s a surprise: The master praised the crooked manager!

Jesus did not tell this story to endorse dishonest business practices. He told this story to highlight the man’s wisdom and savvy in problem solving. He carefully considered the relative value of various courses of action, and then chose the one that best advanced his interests. In other words, he engaged in second order thinking. He kept asking himself, “And then what?”

All of us are tempted to make hasty decisions. There are problems that vex us that we want solved immediately! But before you make your next important decision, pleeeeeasssseee promise me that you will employ second order thinking.

Keep asking yourself “And then what?”